Nov. 3, 2014: Two down, 48 to go!
Hey Democrats? How’s that lesser of two evils strategy working out? Now we all get to work until the age of 70. If we can find work at all…
On the other hand:
Very good day for the Marijuana Vote. 3 out of the 4 entities on the ballot won. (Florida needed 60% and got 57%; which is encouraging if they try for outright legalization rather than medical MJ in 2016).
My friends call me Nelstradamus* because my political predictions tend to come true. I predicted Obama would be the guy back when it Hillary and the Seven Dwarfs in 2008. I predicted Ukraine and Cold War II before the Winter Russian Olympics. No I will not pick your lottery numbers!
*Last name is Nelson
Let’s see how Smile Jamaica did on his Marijuana Picks: 3 out of 4.
<Smile Jamaica On Air Pot Prediction Nov. 1, 2014: #1>
<Smile Jamaica On Air Pot Prediction Nov. 1, 2014: #2>
Nov. 4: 2014:
1. Florida Medical Marijuana vote (Amendment 2); FAILED
Florida: 57% yes/43% no
However, because of the nature of the vote as a Constitutional Amendment it needed 60%. Sheldon Adelson, Las Vegas casino magnate, bankrolled the “no’s”. Ironically, the elderly, who could benefit the most from the therapeutic usages of the Seven Leaf, broke no. The usual shibboleth of “medical mj is just a scam to get stoned” kept the measure from crossing the barrier.
Not sure what is next, but if they can finesse a statewide, full on legalization referendum that might only need 50% + 1, it could pass handily. Plus 15% (yes minus no) is encouraging for 2016: where higher (ha hah) turnout will bring more groups that sat out the mid terms: blacks, Hispanics, women, millennials and pretty much everyone else sick of Tweedledum vs. Tweedle Dee
Here is what I said the day before the vote regarding Florida:
Florida. Amendment 2. Medical Marijuana. Smile Jamaica says: No Chance. Needs 60% to pass. Peaked at 57% and has been trending further down.
55% yes/45% no.
A much better managed campaign as opposed to the failed vote in 2012. It is encouraging that a mid term vote can be so successful, with a ten point spread. Full out Collie-rado/Washington style legalization, taxation and regulation. Treat it just like alcohol. Result exceeded the polls even with core pro pot constituencies highly (no pun) disengaged by this midterm election.
Here is what I wrote prior to the vote:
Jah-regon: Measure 91. Legalization a la Collie-rado and Washington State. Smile Jamaica says: Most likely going to win. Latest polls are encouraging because of the gap between Yes (52%) and No (41%). Could be hurt if disaffected millennials don’t turn up for the midterm vote. Looks promising but not a lock per DC.
70% yes; 30% no. Emphatic yes. Now you can legally possess up to 2 ounces of cannabis and grow 3 plants. Will be interesting to see how the Feds try to keep it clamped down. But two thirds approval is hard to tamp down (pun intended) if we are still a citizen democracy.
Here is what I wrote the day before the vote:
Washington DC: Not full legalization as in #1 and #2 but you can possess up to 2 ounces of cured bud and be able to grow six plants. Huge YES. Will probably cross over 60% yes. But it’s gonna be a nightmare.
So much of surrounding DC is federal jurisdiction. You don’t want to get busted with a stalk of sensi on Fedland. You’re gonna be under Heavy Manners. Plus in a likely ascendant Republican Congress, DC is going to probably face Congressional roadblocks to any semi-legal implementation.
4. Jah-laska: Ballot Measure 2: PASSED
52 yes/48 no
Jah-laska: Ballot Measure 2. Legalization a la Collie-rado and Washington State. Smile Jamaica says: Most likely not going to win
Here I what I said before the vote:
I have seen too many negative polls and only one outlier pro pot result that seemed too good to be true, so it seems suspect. 52% No to 48% Yes, but if millennials don’t show up for the midterm vote it will fall short. Should have waited until 2016 with more robust youth and libertarian turn out. Hope I’m wrong!
I was wrong! Way to go Jah-laska. Legal couch lock is better than booze during those long cold winters.
I assumed (you know what they say about assume? Makes an ass out of you and me) that a demoralized Progressive libertarian turnout combined with a grumpy motivated Tea Party libertarianism would make the YES come up just short. Nice little upset there!
5. Guam: Yes! 56% affirm.
From the Kardashian Post
A local Guamanian (?) government commission is now obligated to set up a program to administer and implement the medical marijuana apparatus for dispensaries and cards for those seeking relief from debilitating diseases like cancer, AIDS and glaucoma.
here’s what I said on this blog the day before the vote about Guam:
Guam: Joaquin (KC) Concepcion II Compassionate Cannabis Use Act of 2013. Medical Marijuana and the creation of legal dispensaries. Vote would ratify the legislation. Smile Jamaica says: I can’t find any reliable polls but its dependency to Federal jurisdiction makes any implementation difficult.
2016 Legalization Predictions.
What happens the next two years: Obama is a lame duck. The Republicans will rage about a thousand year majority. We 1%ers are about to get what they call in Reggae: Heavy Manners. We the sheeple are gonna be pissed off like 2008.
More and more of the elderly will be funneled into their mandated Obamacare Death Panels. Those who grew up thinking marijuana was the gate way drug to get white girls to sleep with minorities are going off to the next world in incrementally higher numbers from a diet too rich in cat food.
New voters who have no problem with weed whatsoever gonna start taking their place. Ryan and Jennifer are gonna be much more kind (pun intended) to the Seven Leaf than Fred and Ethel
The demographics should be ripe for a full court Legalization press.
These states should be able to successfully get full Collierado style legalization going. Let’s quit pussyfooting around with medical marijuana. Legalization, regulation and taxation. Once the government gets a tax in place, they get hooked on the green. Kasheesh. In the same way states never drop or lower their Sales Tax. O-sterity ahead. No stone (pun intended) left unturned as states scrounge for funds to try and make up the short fall.
Expect thin gruel from the feds in the next two years. States budgets are going to be meager. Marijuana sales receipts and cannabis tourism can make up for the Neoliberal beatdown coming our way.
- Collie-fornya is the big prize considering the success of Washington and Oregon. The 9th biggest economy in the World. If California legalizes the collie weed, it’s game over. Might as well just put forward a Federal Legalization bill.
- Jah-waii: More lucrative potential than coffee. Imagine the tourism opportunities. Guam style mid 50’s yes
- Arizona and New Mexico. Libertarian Arizona and more progressive New Mexico are prime states for building organic, local grass roots legalization. Both would be difficult but not impossible. New Mexico the more likely.
- Jah-vada: I know that the casinos, who call the shots in a one industry state, hate the idea of legalization. They don’t want people flying in to Vegas, getting a $30 a night smoking hotel room so they can burn weed all weekend instead of hitting the strip clubs or slot machines. Rural areas should be encouraged by the hemp products potential.
- Jah-tana. My home state with its libertarian bent is a long shot, but there is some energy building. Grassroots (pun intended) shoe leather via the college towns like Missoula and Bozeman would be the center of the effort. But you have to get Billings and the rural communities in the Eastern two thirds of the state. My mom would vote yes. My dad? As long as you don’t tax his Olympia Beer to pay for legalization, I could lobby him for a yes.
If those states voted yes, that would leave only the Mormon Triangle states of Utah, Wyoming and Idaho as bastions of No. I’m waiting to see what Colorado’s ski industry gains from legalization at the expense of Utah’s “stone age” (pun intended) mentality.
The legalization movement has to branch out from the West. These states should have the mechanism to pass legalization
- Wisconsin and Michigan should be successful with a well funded and articulated campaign. Illinois too. Lots of rural areas in these states but working the issues could overcome provincial prejudices.
- Ohio and Minnesota have potential but need to start right now on the campaign.
I fully expect these states to say yes to legalization: New Hempshire, Vermont and Maine. (I mean, Vermont means green for Jah’s sake!). Piggy back those efforts to rope in Delaware and Rhode Island.
If you can get New York, New Jah-sey and Jah-sylvania. It’s game over. Might as well make it easy on all 50 states.
I full expect the South to successfully secede from the Union in the next two years. So why bother.
So November 2016, I want to be able to say: 16 down, 34 to go!
Smile Jamaica’s 2016 Cannabis Legalization Predictions
- New Jah-xico
- New Hempshire
- Jah-mont (Vermont)